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| Start | Saros | Saros-Inex | total eclipses | annular eclipses |

Prediction of Solar Eclipses

Eclipses od the Sun are not at all rare: In a calendar year, there are at least 2 and at most 5 solar eclipses. But that maximum of 5 is rarely reached (last: 1935, next: 2206). Of course, not all eclipses are visible from a given place.

In modern astronomy the calculation of local circumstances of a solar eclipse is performed by using the Besselian elements. Friedrich Bessel (1784-1846) developed the method based on using a coordinate system oriented perpendicular to the shadow's axis.

The Babylonian temple astronomers had been observing the skies and had recorded their observations since the beginning of 2nd millennium BC on clay tablets found in the Mesopotamian region.

The earliest total solar eclipse recorded was seen in Ugarit on May 3, 1375 BC (according to NASA Eclipse Home Page) or on March 5, 1223 BC

Using these data, Babylonian astronomers were able to predict lunar eclipses and -later- solar eclipses with a fair accuracy. They discovered a cycle of 223 intervals between new moons, after which eclipses of the sun and moon recur.

The cycle was also known to Thales (*635 BC, famous "eclipse of Thales" in 585 BC), Hipparchos (*190 BC), Pliny (the Elder, * 23 AD), and Ptolemy (*85 AD). In the western word the term saros was uses first by Edmond Halley in 1691.

Some of the well known facts are illustrated by my diagrams and tables. Most of the data and details are from the books of Jean Meeus and from the Internet sources listed here.

Solar Eclipses 1999 to 2024

New Moon     Ascending Node     Descending Node
computed by my "Planets Applet"

Solar eclipses have been numbered by van den Bergh (1955):

Diagram showing the Saros numbers

Saros-Inex diagram

An eclipses of the Sun can only take place at New Moon (Sun-Moon conjunction), and only if the Moon is near its orbital node (ascending, or descending). The eclipse zone is about +/- 18.5°, centered on the Moon's node (eclipse of 1935 Jan 05 05:35 UT). The Sun travels along the ecliptic at about 1° per day and requires about 37 days to cross through the eclipse zone centered on each node. New Moon occurs every 29 1/2 days and thus guarantees at least one eclipse during each of the Sun's node crossings. The period during which the Sun is near a node is called an eclipse season and there are two eclipse seasons each year.

The saros arises from a natural harmony between three of the Moon's orbital periods:

Synodic Month
(lunation)

new moon to new moon

29.53059 d

29d 12h 44m

*223 =

6,585.322 d

6,585d 07h 44m

18 years,
10, 11 or 12 days,
and 8 hours

Draconic Month

node to node

27.21222 d

27d 05h 06m

*242 =

6,585.357 d

6,585d 08h 34m

18 years,
10 or 11 days,
and 8 hours

Anomalistic Month

perigee to perigee

27.55455 d

27d 13h 19m

*239 =

6,585.537 d

6,585d 12h 53m


The diagram is showing the two cases of a solar eclipse:

New Moon in
ascending node
 New Moon in
 descending node

Successive eclipses are generally separated by 6 synodic months (lunations), a little less than half a year, much rarely by 1 or 5 lunations.

Any two eclipses separated by one saros cycle share similar geometries. They occur at the same node with the Moon at nearly the same distance from Earth and at the same time of year. Because the saros period is not equal to a whole number of days, the extra 1/3 day will shift the central line of the solar eclipse towards the west by about 120° in geographical longitude. Thus, a Saros series returns to about the same geographic region of visibility every 3 Saroses (Triple Saros, exeligmos, 54 years and 31 days).

Example:
The total eclipse of 1999, Aug 11 (maximum at 11:03 UT, 45.1N 24.3E, map) will recur on 2053, Sep 12 (maximum at 09:32 UT, 21.5N 41.8E, map).

World Atlas of Solar Eclipse Paths

Total solar eclipses

Annular solar eclipses

Analysis of data for saros 145, 146

Solar Eclipses 1999 to 2024
Eclipse Home Page (Fred Espenak)

Type of eclipse:
Partial (P), Annular (A), Total (T)

Date / UT / Type / Saros #

1999 Feb 16 06:34 A 140
1999 Aug 11 11:03 T 145

2000 Feb 05 12:49 P 150
2000 Jul 01 19:33 P 117
2000 Jul 31 02:13 P 155
2000 Dec 25 17:35 P 122

2001 Jun 21 12:04 T 127
2001 Dec 14 20:52 A 132

2002 Jun 10 23:44 A 137
2002 Dec 04 07:31 T 142

2003 May 31 04:08 An 147
2003 Nov 23 22:49 T 152

2004 Apr 19 13:34 P 119
2004 Oct 14 02:59 P 124

2005 Apr 08 20:36 H 129
2005 Oct 03 10:32 A 134

2006 Mar 29 10:11 T 139
2006 Sep 22 11:40 A 144

2007 Mar 19 02:32 P 149
2007 Sep 11 12:31 P 154

2008 Feb 07 03:55 A 121
2008 Aug 01 10:21 T 126

2009 Jan 26 07:59 A 131
2009 Jul 22 02:35 T 136

2010 Jan 15 07:06 A 141
2010 Jul 11 19:34 T 146

2011 Jan 04 08:51 P 151
2011 Jun 01 21:16 P 118
2011 Jul 01 08:38 Pb 156
2011 Nov 25 06:20 P 123

2012 May 20 23:53 A 128
2012 Nov 13 22:12 T 133

2013 May 10 00:25 A 138
2013 Nov 03 12:46 H 143

2014 Apr 29 06:03 A- 148
2014 Oct 23 21:44 P 153

2015 Mar 20 09:46 T 120
2015 Sep 13 06:54 P 125

2016 Mar 09 01:57 T 130
2016 Sep 01 09:07 A 135

2017 Feb 26 14:53 A 140
2017 Aug 21 18:25 T 145

2018 Feb 15 20:51 P 150
2018 Jul 13 03:01 P 117
2018 Aug 11 09:46 P 155

2019 Jan 06 01:41 P 122
2019 Jul 02 19:23 T 127
2019 Dec 26 05:18 A 132

2020 Jun 21 06:40 Am 137
2020 Dec 14 16:13 T 142

2021 Jun 10 10:42 A 147
2021 Dec 04 07:33 T 152

2022 Apr 30 20:41 P 119
2022 Oct 25 11:00 P 124

2023 Apr 20 04:17 AT 129
2023 Oct 14 17:59 A 134

2024 Apr 08 18:17 T 139
2024 Oct 02 18:45 A 144

Web Links

Eclipses and the Saros Cycle

A Catalogue of Eclipse Cycles (Robert Harry van Gent)

Solar Eclipses, Investigation from -1000 to 2500,
List of all solar eclipses visible somewhere on Earth, (Felix Verbelen)

Predictable Periodic Events - Part II (Jan Curtis)

The Saros Problem (Bruno Kolberg)

The Saros cycles, Eclipse Frequency and Recurrance
From: F. Espenak: Fifty Year Canon of solar eclipses 1986 - 2035, NASA Ref. Pub # 1178 rev. July 1987

Some Basic Information About Eclipses

Books

Jean Meeus: Mathematical Astronomy Morsels, Willmann-Bell, Second Printing 2000.

Jean Meeus: More Mathematical Astronomy Morsels, Willmann-Bell, 2002.

Jean Meeus: Mathematical Astronomy Morsels III, Willmann-Bell, 2004.

Eclipse: Additional Reading (Encyclopædia Britannica Online)


© 2005-2007 Juergen Giesen